SPC MD 1665



MD 1665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN NEW YORK…VERMONT…AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

MD 1665 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019

Areas affected...Far eastern New York...Vermont...and New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071726Z - 071900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Morning cloud cover has slowed heating across eastern
New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire so far today. However, cloud
cover is becoming less numerous and thus surface heating has
increased across the area in the last 1 to 2 hours. Visible
satellite is starting to show surface based cumulus development
suggesting that instability is increasing. Currently MLCAPE is
around 1000 J/kg across this region, but additional surface
heating/moistening will increase instability to 1500 to 2000 J/kg by
later this afternoon. As instability increases, expect storm
coverage to increase through the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse
rates (5.5-6 C/km), and effective shear around 25 knots will limit
the overall severe weather threat, but given the instability and
storm coverage expected, a few severe storms are possible. A watch
may be needed if storms are more intense/organized than expected,
but current thinking is that a watch will not be needed across this
region.

..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   45197391 44897557 43977551 43187541 42887364 42707220
            42707110 43667111 44857092 45497106 45197391 

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