SPC MD 1715



MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ND

MD 1715 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Areas affected...northwest into central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121932Z - 122100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon.  A
weak/brief tornado and large hail are the primary severe risks.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates an occluded front oriented
from southeast to northwest bisecting ND.  Visible satellite imagery
shows a cumulus field over western ND and stratus to the east of the
boundary.  Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle
70s west and lower 60s east.

The boundary is providing a focus both for storm development this
afternoon and a source for ambient vorticity rich low-level air.  As
storms increase both in number and intensity later this afternoon, a
few may acquire weak/transient low-level rotation as they move
east-southeast and interact with the zone of low-level vorticity
along the boundary.  A tornado is possible along with hail.  The
spatial coverage and intensity of the expected severe risk will
likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   48490307 47840202 47290072 47350003 48000038 48820244
            48490307 

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