SPC MD 1721


MD 1721 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western/central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131356Z - 131530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail risk may continue this morning with
ongoing thunderstorms. Watch issuance is unlikely in the short term.

DISCUSSION...A pair of elevated supercells has evolved this morning
in southern Cherry County NE within a warm air advection regime
maximized around 700 mb. Short-term guidance, including the latest
run of the RAP, suggests that 25-35 kt of southwesterly flow
centered around 700 mb may persist through the rest of the morning.
These winds, along with 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear, could
maintain storm intensities as they develop southeastward along an
instability gradient present across western/central NE. Isolated
large hail will remain the primary threat for the next couple of
hours given a stable near-surface layer noted on the 12Z sounding
from LBF. Regardless, this hail threat will likely remain too
isolated to justify watch issuance in the short term (through the
rest of the morning). But, the severe threat will likely increase
later today across parts of southern/western NE as the atmosphere
destabilizes and surface-based storms develop.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42580301 42870292 42910242 42280099 41710028 41140025
            40740043 40740117 41310187 41990253 42580301 

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