SPC MD 1743



MD 1743 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE…NORTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTHWEST MO

MD 1743 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Areas affected...portions of southeast NE...northeast KS and far
northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151611Z - 151815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts are possible with east/southeastward
progressing band of storms through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An MCS over southeast NE will continue to track
east/southeast at around 35-40 kt over the next few hours. After
initial weakening earlier in the morning, this system appears to be
maintaining current intensity with some periodic increases in
strength. The most recent measured wind gust with the system was 47
mph at KHSI at 1451Z. The expectation is that the line segment will
continue east/southeast along/just north of instability gradient
oriented across central/eastern KS. The overnight southwesterly low
level jet should continue to weaken through midday, and downstream
anvil debris will inhibit stronger destabilization. The exception
may be along the southern fringes of the MCS where cloud cover is
thinner, and where any renewed convection will be closer to the
moist axis and increasing instability. As low level lapse rates
steepen to the south across KS, some intermittent strong gusts are
possible. However, overall severe threat is expected to remain
limited as the bulk of this system remains north and east of a more
favorable severe environment. A watch is not expected at this time,
but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Leitman/Grams.. 08/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40479790 40819753 40709630 40429500 40139454 39719432
            39159429 38939435 38849471 39019568 39279674 39569797
            39829854 40029851 40359804 40479790 

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