SPC MD 1754


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Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Areas affected...eastern Kansas/western Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 585...

Valid 160411Z - 160615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 585 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms continue moving across eastern parts
of Kansas, within WW 585 (and across western Missouri within WW
584).  Southeastward advance of the convection/severe risk will
likely require a new/downstream WW issuance into southeast
Kansas/southwestern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows several severe/supercell storms
moving south-southeast across eastern Kansas, in eastern portions of
Tornado Watch 585.  Other strong/locally severe storms are crossing
western Missouri, and are slightly elevated atop a cooler/more
stable boundary layer.

The eastern Kansas storms remain in proximity to the mixed-layer
CAPE axis, and are being fed by a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet.
This kinematic/thermodynamic configuration should support a
continuation of the intense eastern Kansas storms, which will
continue to spread south-southeastward and eventually exit WW 585. 
With the Missouri storms also beginning to exit WW 584, a new WW
will likely be required.  This watch will likely replace both
existing watches, and will include the ongoing storms, and extend
downstream into southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri.

..Goss.. 08/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37859633 39089669 40049607 39469462 38749337 37539288
            36609294 37139546 37589627 37859633 

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