SPC MD 1948



MD 1948 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NE PANHANDLE…WESTERN/CENTRAL NE…SOUTH-CENTRAL SD

MD 1948 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Areas affected...NE Panhandle...Western/Central NE...South-Central
SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 101925Z - 102130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated over north-central
NE/south-central SD later this afternoon. All severe hazards,
including tornadoes, are possible with the initial development.
Upscale growth into a strong, forward-propagating MCS anticipated
thereafter.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a warm front from just
south of the YKN (in far southeast SD) west-southwestward across
north-central NE and into far southeast WY. Moist conditions exist
south of this front with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. These
moist conditions combined with steep mid-level lapse rates are
contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy. Additionally,
southeasterly surface winds beneath increasing southwesterly flow
results in a veering wind profile and strong deep layer shear.

Expectation is for storm to develop quickly along and near the front
once convective inhibition erodes this afternoon. An initially
discrete mode is anticipated but close storm proximity suggests
clustering could occur quickly. Even so, favorable low-level shear
profiles and ample low-level moisture suggest tornadoes are
possible. A forward-propagating MCS will likely develop out of the
storm cluster as cold pools amalgamate. Given the overall
environment, some significant wind gusts (i.e. 74+ mph) are possible
within this MCS.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 09/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42370311 43190254 43550192 43670060 43579968 43129893
            42139884 41460004 41370260 42370311 

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