SPC MD 1949



MD 1949 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS…SOUTHEAST COLORADO…NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE…WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE…NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

MD 1949 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...Southeast Colorado...northwest
Texas Panhandle...western Oklahoma Panhandle...northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101938Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few isolated storms capable of strong/severe wind gusts
are possible this afternoon. This diurnally-driven activity should
cease after sunset. A WW is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus have been deepening within the lee trough into
southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico over the past hour.
Isolated storms have already developed with a few more storms
possible within the next couple hours. With stronger flow/shear
displaced to the northwest, storms will struggle to organize and
propagate very far eastward into greater buoyancy. However, strong
surface heating has steepened low-level lapse rates significantly
which will allow a few strong/severe wind gusts to accompany this
activity.  With weak upper-level support, this disorganized activity
will likely cease after sunset. A WW is not likely.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36470371 38820207 38970169 38920116 38410076 37360091
            36380167 35150271 34820358 35190416 35520435 36470371 

Read more



Source link

  • Editor