SPC MD 1950



MD 1950 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN

MD 1950 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102158Z - 110000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may become organized and perhaps become
severe over the next few hours. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps
a few marginally severe hail stones may accompany the stronger
storms. Given the potentially isolated nature of the storms, a WW
issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A 500 mb vort max across northern parts of Lower
Michigan is currently propagating eastward while cresting a low
amplitude ridge aloft, contributing to modest deep-layer ascent
across central parts of Lower Michigan. An small uptick in
convective coverage and organization/intensity has been noted over
the past hour, particularly in the vicinity of
Newaygo/Mecosta/Isabella Counties. These storms are maturing in an
ambient environment characterized by modest instability and strong
deep-layer shear, with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 knots of
effective bulk shear depicted by recent Mesoanalysis. In addition,
over 150 m2/s2 0-1km SRH and 300 m2/s2 0-3km SRH is present across
parts of the Lower Michigan Peninsula per latest GRR and DTX VAD
profiler data. As such, the ambient environment will be supportive
of storm organization and at least some mid-level rotation,
fostering the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps
some marginally severe hail.

The severe threat however, may be rather sparse in nature, possibly
precluding a WW issuance. However, given the relatively favorable
overlapping kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space, convective
trends will continue to be monitored through the remainder of the
afternoon.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42698344 42518409 42448509 42728616 43118628 43738587
            44128536 43928439 43488359 43038342 42698344 

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