SPC MD 1957



MD 1957 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN OHIO…WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA…PORTIONS OF MID-ATLANTIC

MD 1957 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Areas affected...Far eastern Ohio...western/central
Pennsylvania...Portions of Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111908Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage from water-loaded downbursts possible
this afternoon. No WW is planned.

DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating of very moist airmass has lead
to the development of a few clusters of storms in eastern Ohio and
along the Blue Ridge. So far, convection has remained generally
shallow; however, storm intensity will likely increase as
temperatures across the region warm into the upper-80s and low-90s
F. Deep-layer flow is uniformly weak meaning storms will be only
loosely organized. The main threat from this activity will be wind
damage from localized, water-loaded downdrafts as low-level lapse
rates are quite steep. Any more organized threat from this activity
would be conditional on cold pools merging and propagating eastward.
Without upper-level support, this activity should wane at sunset and
will not likely reach the coast given the stable marine layer
pushing inland. No WW is planned.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
CLE...

LAT...LON   40868144 41438119 42047995 41887810 41507719 40237636
            39067628 38327656 37817692 37717737 37507793 37347868
            37337932 37337985 37848020 38538011 39278020 39938058
            40358111 40868144 

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