SPC MD 1965



MD 1965 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA…CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA

MD 1965 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southern Minnesota...central/eastern
Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 121812Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have initiated along the warm front in northern
Iowa/southern Minnesota. Storms will intensify this afternoon with
all hazards possible. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued in the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has formed near the warm
front in the MN/IA border vicinity. While activity has not become
very intense, the cell in Winnebago County, IA has shown persistent
mid-level rotation on KARX radar velocity. Being so near the warm
front, these storms may move north of the boundary before becoming
surface based. However, continued northward progress of the front
and surface heating may allow surface or near-surface-based storms
within the next 1-2 hours. Farther south, development is expected to
occur along the cold front in western Iowa and perhaps along the
differential heating boundary ahead the low-level stratus in central
IA. 35-50 kts of effective shear and mid-level lapse rates of around
7 C/km will support organized storms capable of large hail and
isolated damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes will also be possible,
particularly in northeastern IA and southeastern Minnesota where
surface flow is backed near the warm front. Storm activity is
expected to increase within the next 2 hours. A Tornado Watch will
likely be needed.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41509442 43059488 44049431 44429368 44459248 44079046
            43378960 42538978 41679022 41209182 41219341 41509442 

Read more



Source link

  • Editor