SPC MD 1967


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Mesoscale Discussion 1967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

Areas affected...Northwest Missouri...southeastern
Kansas...north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121902Z - 122100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms are likely along a cold front this
afternoon. Weakly organized multicell storms will be capable of
strong/severe wind gusts as storms congeal/interact. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is possible should convective intensity increase
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage along the slowly progressing cold
front has increased across portions of eastern/southeastern Kansas.
A leading line of early-morning convection has hindered surface
heating across eastern Kansas/western Missouri thus far and activity
has consequently remained weak. Surface temperatures have warmed to
the upper-80s/low-90s F from northwest MO to north-central OK, with
dewpoints holding in the low 70s F. By late afternoon, MLCAPE will
likely reach near 2000 J/kg, supporting more robust updrafts. The
main limiting factors to the overall severe threat will be
relatively weak warm sector shear (effectively 30 kts or less) and
deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary. Nevertheless, numerous
interacting storms will support pockets of strong/severe wind gust
potential. Large hail will be possible with the stronger storms,
though this risk should remain isolated given the linear/multicell
storm mode. Weak steering flow and the upper-level trough lifting to
the northeast will mean very slow progression of the boundary to the
south and east. Trends in intensity will continue to be monitored
for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch later this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36239852 37199771 39699559 40659480 40969347 40599253
            39589259 38069401 36899557 35999722 35619814 35809851

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