SPC MD 1970



MD 1970 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 648…650… FOR EASTERN IOWA…SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN…NORTHERN ILLINOIS

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Mesoscale Discussion 1970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...northern
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 648...650...

Valid 122304Z - 130100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 648, 650 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for an isolated tornado continues from
northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. A damaging wind threat may
eventually develop southward across the remainder of eastern Iowa
and into northern Illinois, and additional watches may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Embedded supercells continue within an area of warm
advection precipitation from northeast IA into southwest WI near a
warm front. Although temperatures are currently cooler over WI,
southwestern parts of the state are in close proximity to higher
theta-e air just to the southwest. In addition, 850 mb winds will
continue to provide advection and low-level shear. 

To the south of the ongoing cluster, strong instability remains
ahead of the cold front which is now over central IA. Over the next
few hours, storms are expected to increase in coverage, with hail or
wind possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as effective SRH
remains in the 150-250 m2/s2 range over northern IL.

..Jewell.. 09/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   41338769 40878919 40729013 40759072 40919128 41189165
            41509175 42099155 42499136 43379124 43789076 43769027
            43458981 43118918 42888872 42598806 42428771 42078746
            41648751 41338769 

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