SPC MD 1972



MD 1972 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

MD 1972 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern North Carolina into northern
South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131805Z - 131930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in convection is expected across the area,
with a couple of damaging wind gusts possible. Given the sparse
nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An increase in convective development and associated
lightning trends have been noted over the past couple of hours in
close proximity to the NC/SC border. Surface temperatures exceeding
90F have resulted in vigorous diurnal mixing of the boundary layer,
with convective temperatures breached in multiple locales. With
continued heating, additional storm development is likely over the
next few hours. Deep-tropospheric flow and subsequent shear is very
weak, with marginal storm organization expected. Nonetheless, up to
1500 J/kg MLCAPE is in place across much of the region. As such, a
few of the strongest storms may produce water-loaded downdrafts,
with strong gusty winds likely. A couple of the strongest gusts may
approach severe limits, especially with the most intense cells, and
with storm clusters. Still, the severe wind gust threat is expected
to be isolated in nature, precluding a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34827967 33888065 34038198 34558269 35348302 35758265
            36148195 35648075 34827967 

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