SPC MD 1973



MD 1973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST INDIANA…SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO

MD 1973 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Areas affected...northeast Indiana...southeast lower Michigan
through northern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 131821Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity
from northeast IN southeast lower MI through northwest OH this
afternoon posing a threat for mainly damaging wind and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes. Trends are being monitored for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data show a few thunderstorms have
developed within a zone of weak pre-frontal convergence across
extreme northeast IN through southeast lower MI. Downstream from
this activity, diabatic warming of the moist surface layer with
temperatures rising through the 80s has boosted MLCAPE to 1000-1500
J/kg and further destabilization is likely this afternoon. Storms
should continue developing within this zone of weak pre-frontal
convergence from northeast IN through southeast lower MI and spread
east through northwest OH. While stronger winds aloft accompanying a
progressive shortwave trough will remain north and west of the zone
of thunderstorm development, 0-6 km shear from 30-40 kt will be
sufficient for organized storms including a few supercells and
bowing segments. Tendency has been for low-level winds to veer in
warm sector which will should limit size of low-level hodographs
with 0-1 km storm relative helicity generally less than 150 m2/s2.
This suggests the primary threat should be locally strong to
damaging gusts, through a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Dial/Grams.. 09/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41088528 42178407 43408328 43628276 42708230 41448218
            40738350 40638497 41088528 

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