SPC MD 2043



MD 2043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST IOWA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN

MD 2043 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Areas affected...northwest Iowa...central and southern Minnesota
through far western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302155Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms might develop early this evening from
northwest Iowa into south central central Minnesota and spread east
into far western Wisconsin. Should storms develop, they will pose
some risk for a few instances of damaging wind and large hail. A
couple of limiting factors lowers confidence in overall severe
threat. Therefore, any ww issuance will ultimately depend on
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cold front extends from a surface
low in west central MN southwest through southwestern WI and
northwest IA. A warm front extends from the low through east central
MN into northwest WI. The warm sector ahead of the cold front is
very moist (70 F dewpoints) and moderately unstable with 2000-2500
J/kg MLCAPE. However, WV imagery shows a plume of very dry mid-level
air with warm temperatures in the 700-500 mb layer and with a
capping inversion around 750 mb. Deeper forcing for ascent with an
ejecting shortwave trough will remain well to the west in the
post-frontal regime across ND. Visible satellite imagery shows a
band of towering cumulus increasing along the length of the front
from central MN into northwest IA. However, given the potential
limiting factors including mid-level dry air entrainment, storm
coverage and could remain very isolated. Nevertheless, the favorable
kinematic environment with up to 50 kt effective bulk shear along
with moderate instability may support some risk for large hail and
damaging wind will exist with any sustained updrafts.

..Dial/Guyer.. 09/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42929583 44519489 45589442 45999350 45519233 44629254
            43239452 42929583 

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