SPC MD 2044



MD 2044 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

MD 2044 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Areas affected...northern Kansas and southern through northeastern
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302159Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to gradually increase in coverage
and intensity through tonight, though the risk of severe weather
should be isolated enough to preclude a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus was noted on satellite along and
ahead of a stalling front bisecting the discussion area from far
northwestern Kansas northeastward to far northeastern Nebraska.  The
environment along and ahead of this boundary is unstable and weakly
inhibited, with 60s to low 70s F dewpoints beneath modest (7-7.5 deg
C) lapse rates supporting MUCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg.  This
instability and veering/strengthening shear profiles will foster
organized convection and occasional updraft rotation, ultimately
resulting in a risk for damaging winds and large hail.

Models/CAMs suggest that convective coverage will continue to
increase over time, resulting in a mix of cells and perhaps a couple
linear segments as convection matures.  The overall risk should
remain isolated enough to preclude a WW issuance, however.

..Cook/Guyer.. 09/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39970164 40650139 41300028 42459783 42619699 41929618
            41189630 40119730 39369908 38770073 38680152 39200174
            39970164 

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