SPC MD 2047



MD 2047 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHEAST NE…FAR NORTHWEST MO…SOUTHWEST IA

MD 2047 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Areas affected...far northeast KS...far southeast NE...far northwest
MO...southwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011908Z - 012015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may develop this afternoon into the
early evening.  The risk for a tornado and isolated damaging gusts
may maximize during the 4-7pm period.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of storms developing in the
open warm sector ahead of a stalled front draped across central KS
northeast into parts of southeast NE and western IA.  A supercell
has recently formed in Pawnee County, NE.  Surface temperatures have
warmed into the lower-middle 80s with lower 70s dewpoints. 
Objective analysis is indicating MLCAPE is around 1500-2000 J/kg.   


Time-lagged RAP and 12z NAM forecast soundings are showing
hodographs increasing through the afternoon.  Although hodograph
size is not particularly large as of 2pm (when comparing area 88D
VAD to their forecast hodograph counterparts), a narrow zone from
northeast KS into southwest IA is forecast to undergo marked
improvement in hodograph shape/size through 5-6pm.  As such, a risk
for a tornado and isolated damaging gusts appears to be increasing.

..Smith/Hart.. 10/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40009731 41329510 41499400 41059392 39569657 39609718
            40009731 

Read more



Source link