SPC MD 2050



MD 2050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI

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Mesoscale Discussion 2050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 012229Z - 012330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A localized area of severe wind potential exists just
south of WW 670.  Convective trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a new WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in convection across central Kansas has
occurred within the past hour or so, with a few observations of
severe wind gusts noted with a broken convective line moving through
the area.  The uptick is likely related to a mid-level impulse and
related forcing for ascent passing just north of the region.  The
downstream environment is moderately unstable and strongly sheared,
which should result in some persistence of this threat with
northeastward extent despite increasingly hostile mid-level
subsidence with southward extent.  Severe wind gusts will probably
accompany this activity, though veering wind fields with height
suggest the potential for an isolated tornado or two as well.  A WW
issuance is being considered, though given the localized nature of
this threat and its proximity to ongoing WW 670, additional spatial
extensions may also be needed.

..Cook/Guyer.. 10/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39879506 39619567 39079664 38679730 38379740 38129708
            38119641 38349507 38809437 39489409 40029416 40179429
            40159462 39879506 

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