SPC MD 2051



MD 2051 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670… FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA

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Mesoscale Discussion 2051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Areas affected...northeast Kansas...extreme southeast Nebraska
northwest Missouri through central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670...

Valid 012305Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a few tornadoes, isolated damaging wind and
large hail will persist through the early evening hours across the
remainder of the tornado watch area. Storms should approach the
eastern bound of the WW by 00-01Z, at which time either local
extensions or a new WW issuance might be needed.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of storms with embedded supercells are
training along and just ahead of a slow-moving cold front from
northeast KS, northwest MO into central IA. The downstream warm
sector remains moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
supported by a warm and very moist boundary layer with upper 70s F
dewpoints. This region also remains within belt of stronger winds
aloft with 50 kt effective bulk shear. The southerly low-level jet
will strengthen to 40+ kt this evening with sizeable hodographs and
0-1 km storm relative helicity from 150-250 m2/s2 supporting an
ongoing threat for low-level mesocyclones and a few tornadoes next
couple of hours.

..Dial.. 10/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41219476 42619237 42359170 41679216 40519384 39189589
            39319691 41219476 

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