SPC MD 2053



MD 2053 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN

MD 2053 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Areas affected...parts of Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020217Z - 020415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Bands of storms moving eastward from Lake Michigan into
central Lower Michigan may pose a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for this threat.

DISCUSSION...Linear bands are migrating eastward across the
discussion area currently.  These storms are in a strongly sheared
(60 kts of deep shear), but weakly unstable environment - mainly due
to modest (6-7 deg C/km) mid-level lapse rates and warm (-6C at
500mb) mid-level temperatures.  Nevertheless, enough buoyancy exists
for organized bands that are moving east-southeastward across a weak
frontal zone in the region.  This may foster an isolated
damaging-wind threat over the next couple of hours or so.  This
threat should remain low enough to preclude a WW issuance.

..Cook/Guyer.. 10/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43698408 43868496 43918588 43618674 43178688 42598667
            42188620 42058570 42088465 42298399 42728374 43378369
            43698408 

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