SPC MD 2054



MD 2054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 2054 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2019

Areas affected...Parts of north central Oklahoma...eastern Kansas
and west central/northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021930Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is expected by 5-6 PM
CDT, perhaps earlier, which could pose at least some risk for
marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts.  At the present
time, the need for a watch is not anticipated, but trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Although mid-level lapse rates appear generally weak,
latest objective analysis indicates moderately large mixed-layer
CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) is developing  within a narrow pre-frontal
corridor across the central Plains into lower Missouri Valley.  This
coincides with the axis of stronger daytime heating, roughly near
the Interstate 35 corridor of north central Oklahoma through the
Greater Kansas City MO Metropolitan area, where surface dew points
are also near 70 F.

This is near the northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered
over the Mid South, and appreciable mid-level height falls,
associated with a vigorous upstream short wave trough progressing
east-northeast of the northern Rockies, appear likely to pass to the
northwest/north of the region.  However, models indicate that weak
lower/mid tropospheric cooling will contribute to weakening of
inhibition and allow for the initiation of scattered thunderstorms
by 22-23Z, if not earlier.

Pre-frontal southwesterly low-level wind fields are modest to weak
in strength, but deep-layer shear on the southern fringe of the
stronger flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30-40+ kt) appears sufficient
to support organized convection, including supercell structures. 
Some of this may pose at least some risk for marginally severe hail
and localized downbursts initially.  Upscale growing convection into
early evening could be accompanied by increasing potential for
strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 10/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36779848 37739754 39279516 39849421 39499345 38619399
            37069617 36359772 36779848 

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