SPC MD 2055



MD 2055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

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Mesoscale Discussion 2055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2019

Areas affected...Parts of central into northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052012Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible
through 5-7 PM CDT, which could pose at least some risk for severe
hail and locally strong surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity is
ongoing along a line east/northeast of Ponca City to near/east of
Stillwater and Guthrie.  With the significant mid-level short wave
trough now well in the process of accelerating away from the
southern Plains, this appears largely in response to forcing
associated with low-level frontogenesis.  This is also south of the
stronger cyclonic mid-level flow, but shear where convection is
occurring may still be at least modest in strength.  Most notable, a
seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary layer does appear to be
contributing to sizable mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.

Severe hail/wind potential with the frontal convection remains at
least somewhat unclear.  As storms continue to initiate, there seems
likely to become a tendency for the front to undercut the
convection, with activity also tending to spread into an environment
across northeastern Oklahoma stabilized by prior convection.

There does appear at least some potential for additional isolated
pre-frontal convective development late this afternoon, within a
corridor of lift associated with warm advection, to the east of the
nose of the stronger pre-frontal surface heating (including surface
temperatures near 90 F).  This is becoming focused just south of the
Interstate 44 corridor, near/east of the Oklahoma City metro, and
would seem to offer the best potential for sustained vigorous
thunderstorm activity, perhaps including some supercell structure.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 10/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35689743 36429623 35799541 35149627 34999729 35689743 

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