SPC MD 2057



MD 2057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND FAR WEST TX

MD 2057 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2019

Areas affected...Portions of NM and far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081938Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind threat should
develop this afternoon. Overall severe threat will likely remain too
marginal/isolated to justify watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection across far eastern AZ and western
NM has gradually increased over the past couple of hours. This trend
should continue through the remainder of the afternoon as a
low-amplitude shortwave trough over western AZ moves eastward across
the Southwest. Slow strengthening of the mid-level
west-southwesterly winds ahead of this feature will foster around
30-35 kt of effective bulk shear across this region. This should be
enough shear to support multicells to marginal supercell structures.
Strong westerly anvil-level flow will also promote robust venting of
thunderstorm updrafts.

Low-level moisture remains limited across much of NM and far west
TX, but modest diurnal heating has steepened low-level lapse rates
across the lower terrain/valleys. About 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
should become prevalent with continued heating this afternoon,
particularly across southern NM into far west TX where slightly
greater low-level moisture is present. Isolated, marginally severe
hail may occur with any supercells that form, and strong/gusty
downdraft winds also appear possible given the steepened low-level
lapse rates. These storms should eventually weaken as they move
eastward into eastern NM and west TX later this evening as
convective inhibition increases.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 10/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31250866 34710819 34980766 34960577 34700451 33760362
            32980370 32200406 31110529 31050573 31430627 31700654
            31690808 31250808 31250866 

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