SPC MD 2059



MD 2059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX AND WESTERN OK

MD 2059 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and
western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 092052Z - 092315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least an isolated threat for large hail and perhaps
strong to locally damaging winds may increase late this afternoon
and early evening. Watch issuance is possible by 23Z (6 PM CDT).

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier showers and storms, strong
heating has occurred across the eastern TX Panhandle into western
OK. Low-level moisture has likewise increased along/east of a
sharpening surface lee trough extending southward across the
southern High Plains from a low in southeastern CO. A narrow
north-south corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely exist
through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening across
this region. Even though large-scale ascent is expected to remain
nebulous/weak, recent visible satellite imagery shows some increase
in the CU field across parts of the TX South Plains into northwest
TX. As convective inhibition continues to erode and low-level
convergence along the surface trough becomes maximized, storms
should gradually increase in coverage. Southerly surface winds
veering and strengthening with height through mid levels will
support around 40 kt of effective bulk shear. A supercell storm mode
is anticipated initially, with isolated large hail likely to be the
primary threat. Strong/gusty downdraft winds may also occur through
the early evening as a low-level jet strengthens and some clustering
potentially occurs. A narrow spatial/temporal window for a tornado
may also exist, primarily across southwestern OK, early this evening
if storms can remain semi-discrete as effective SRH increases in
tandem with the strengthening low-level jet.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 10/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33629878 33369929 33410041 33840065 34260073 34840058
            35290029 35539994 35669925 35569874 34809840 34159847
            33629878 

Read more



Source link