SPC MD 2063



MD 2063 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TX…CENTRAL/EASTERN OK…NORTHWESTERN AR…FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS…AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO

MD 2063 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Areas affected...Portions of north TX...central/eastern
OK...northwestern AR...far southeastern KS...and western/southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 101714Z - 101915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase this afternoon. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Watch
issuance is likely in the next couple of hours (by 19Z/2 PM CDT).

DISCUSSION...A cold front clearly visible on satellite imagery and
surface observations across eastern KS into OK and western north TX
at 17Z will continue moving eastward this afternoon. Low-level
convergence along the front will foster additional storm development
over the next couple of hours as the pre-frontal warm sector
continues to destabilize. As temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s
from eastern OK into southwestern MO, MLCAPE should increase into
the 1500-2500 J/kg range across this region. Low-level winds should
have a tendency to veer with time along/ahead of the front as a
low-level jet shifts northward into MO through this evening.
Regardless, there will be sufficient veering/strengthening of the
wind field through mid levels to support updraft rotation. Around
35-45 kt of effective shear will likely support some supercells
initially. This potential may be relatively greater in pre-frontal
confluence bands that have persisted over the past few hours across
eastern OK. Isolated large hail will be a concern at first. But,
upscale growth along the front appears very likely, and damaging
winds should become the dominant threat by late afternoon as storms
move east-southeastward. Even though low-level winds should
gradually veer with time, there will still be more than enough
effective SRH for low-level storm rotation. A couple tornadoes may
occur early in the convective life cycle, particularly with any
storms that can form and remain at least semi-discrete ahead of the
front.

..Gleason/Hart.. 10/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34059820 34449797 35919630 37709515 38429454 38509375
            38289308 37359275 36359284 35209376 33799524 33409633
            33109709 33179769 33449814 34059820 

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