SPC MD 2066


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Mesoscale Discussion 2066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas...southeast

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

Valid 102345Z - 110145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms remain possible through 8-9 PM
CDT from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Isolated wind
damage, marginally severe hail are the main threats. A brief window
for isolated tornado activity exists, though boundary layer
stabilization will lessen this threat with time. No downstream watch
is planned. A local extension in time for portions of southeast
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas may be needed if intense storms
appear likely to persist past 8 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...The overall intensity of storms in WW 673 has trended
downward over the past 1-2 hours as boundary layer temperatures have
continued to cool across the warm sector. A few strong/severe storms
ongoing from southeast Oklahoma into portions of northwest Arkansas
may continue through 8-9 PM CDT. Deep-layer wind fields will
continue to support organized storms with around 40-50 kts of
effective shear analyzed by objective mesoanalysis. KSGF/KSRX VAD
profiles also show strong low-level shear with ample low-level
hodograph curvature. A brief window for isolated tornado activity
will exist until low-level thermodynamic profiles become
increasingly unfavorable during the early evening. With the severe
threat likely decreasing with time, a new downstream watch is not
currently anticipated. The current watch is set to expire at 8 PM
CDT. A local extension in time may be needed in portions of
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas should intense storms
appear likely to persist beyond the scheduled expiration time.

..Wendt.. 10/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33799582 34609528 35019484 36009425 37769376 37949280
            36989246 34699396 33639487 33419552 33799582 

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