SPC MD 2134



MD 2134 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 687…688… FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA

MD 2134 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Areas affected...central North Carolina into Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 687...688...

Valid 312236Z - 010030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 687, 688 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes is
expected to increase over the next several hours from North Carolina
into Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop near the cold front, most
notably over central SC and now into central NC. Here, warmer
surface temperatures exist which is helping low-level instability
and reducing minor levels of convective inhibition. Wind profiles
across the region are strong, with the greatest 0-1 SRH from
north-central NC into VA. Here, values are exceeding 300 m2/s2,
which is quite favorable for tornadoes.

Strong low-level mean winds will aid downdraft production, with
swaths of damaging winds expected as these storms move rapidly
northeast. While storms will be focused along the cold front,
typically favoring QLCS, deep-layer shear is oriented such that
isolated, individual supercells will be possible, with a threat of
tornadoes. Severe storms developing over NC will move into southern
VA this evening, with a continued tornado threat.

..Jewell.. 10/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   37807889 38117831 38097764 37887711 37397674 36877678
            36077723 35237808 34757869 34597927 34338005 34448058
            34688077 35238048 36008002 37807889 

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