SPC MD 2135



MD 2135 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 686…690… FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA…MARYLAND…SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

MD 2135 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Areas affected...northern Virginia...Maryland...southeast
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Tornado Watch 686...690...

Valid 312314Z - 010115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 686, 690 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging storms, including tornadoes, is
increasing across the area.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to evolve along the rapidly advancing
cold front, into a warm and marginally unstable air mass. Area VWPs
show extreme shear in place, with 0-1 SRH of 500-750 m2/s2 favoring
both QLCS and isolated supercells. Minor capping has limited
strong/severe storm coverage, but increasing large-scale lift should
allow for an increasing severe threat through the evening. Damaging
winds are likely, and a few tornadoes are possible as well with
these fast-moving storms. 

For areas east of the ongoing tornado watches, including NJ and DE,
the severe threat is lesser, but still cannot be ruled out as the
front approaches a cooler, less-unstable air mass near the coast.
Given such extreme shear and lift, a few severe storms may persist
farther east than expected, and additional watches and/or extensions
may be considered this evening.

..Jewell.. 10/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37837861 38487825 38807819 39257802 39737775 40357731
            41037662 41107545 40887486 40327488 39737516 39167556
            38447655 37967734 37777782 37697826 37837861 

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