SPC MD 2138



MD 2138 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691…692… FOR COASTAL MID ATLANTIC

MD 2138 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Areas affected...coastal Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...692...

Valid 010158Z - 010400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691, 692
continues.

SUMMARY...Localized wind damage remains possible as storms continue
east toward the Coast. Some decrease in intensity is expected.

DISCUSSION...Lightning trends have decreased over parts of VA and
NC, but storms remain more active into eastern PA coincident with
the strongest large-scale ascent. 00Z soundings show extreme shear
profiles, but relatively warm midlevel temperatures have mitigated
updraft strength overall. Objective analysis shows increased CIN
near the coast where trajectories are off the cooler water. Given
the already marginal instability well inland, a gradual weakening
trend is anticipated as the frontal storms continue east. However,
given extreme shear, it will not be difficult for the stronger
storms/higher reflectivity areas to produce damaging wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...
RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34637673 34567749 34757810 35147845 35617825 36427766
            37387708 38337702 38857691 39577637 40307600 41007562
            41297507 41607432 41577373 41407353 41127358 40947380
            40737402 40247433 39747440 39537448 38427499 37377564
            36667581 36147566 35647572 35187601 34637673 

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