SPC Nov 3, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook



SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2019

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday across
parts of the Southwest, southern Plains, southern Georgia, and
Florida. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough encompassing a majority of the CONUS east of
the Rockies should gradually move eastward on Tuesday. Greater
low-level moisture will likely be present across much of FL and
perhaps southern GA to the south of a front. This boundary should
not make much northward progress through the period as surface high
pressure develops eastward from the mid MS Valley to the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to perhaps scattered
thunderstorms may develop along sea breezes Tuesday afternoon across
FL and southern GA. Mid-level flow should be at least somewhat
enhanced across the FL Panhandle into parts of southern GA. However,
large-scale ascent is forecast to remain very weak as the primary
upper trough shifts northeastward away from this region. Instability
should also remain modest with northward extent, as generally poor
mid-level lapse rates should be present. Stronger surface heating
and greater instability across the central and southern FL Peninsula
will likely be displaced to the south of the stronger mid-level
flow. All these limiting factors suggest that the overall severe
threat Tuesday across FL and vicinity will probably remain low.

Farther west, a closed upper low initially just off the coast of
southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to develop
slowly eastward across the lower CO River Valley and Southwest
through the period. Modest low-level moisture return should continue
across parts of the southern Plains (mainly TX). Isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the open warm sector
Tuesday afternoon. However, a greater chance for convection should
occur across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains as
the upper low shifts eastward Tuesday evening and overnight. Some
low-level mass response in the form of a modestly strengthening
south-southwesterly low-level jet may also occur late Tuesday across
the southern Plains. Mainly elevated convection may develop in
response over both of these regions. Even though mid-level flow and
related deep-layer shear should gradually strengthen Tuesday night,
instability is forecast to remain generally weak. Some small hail
could occur with the strongest updrafts, but the potential for large
hail appears too limited to include any severe probabilities at this
time.

..Gleason.. 11/03/2019

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