SPC MD 2141



MD 2141 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA INTO EXTREME WESTERN NEW MEXICO

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Mesoscale Discussion 2141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2019

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Arizona into extreme
western New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062149Z - 062315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few marginally severe hail stones are possible over the
next few hours with the stronger storms. The localized and brief
nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Colder mid-level temperatures are overspreading a
heated boundary layer, as an upper-level shortwave trough continues
to pivot eastward, contributing to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE across
central into eastern AZ per latest mesoanalysis. Marginal buoyancy
and deep-layer ascent have supported a recent uptick in convective
coverage and duration, where at least modest deep-layer shear (40+
knot effective bulk shear) supports some updraft strengthening and
organization/longevity. Given the cooler temperatures aloft, at
least some marginally severe hail may accompany the strongest storms
during the peak of their life cycle. 

Nonetheless, the overall coverage of severe hail is expected to be
spatially and temporally sparse enough such that a WW issuance is
not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32640997 33841098 34701178 35241187 35561066 35420938
            34610878 33000886 32490919 32640997 

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