SPC MD 2142



MD 2142 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS

MD 2142 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2019

Areas affected...southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070155Z - 070430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginally severe hail this
evening over parts of west Texas.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening near and
along a stalled front with a strong cluster just southwest of
Midland. The 00Z MAF sounding shows sufficient instability to
support strong storms given good deep-layer shear. Winds below 700
mb are currently weak, but are expected to increase this evening
which may enhance lift via warm advection near the stalled front.
This will also help storm chances well north of the wind shift,
where small/marginal hail is also possible. Isolated strong wind
gusts are possible along the front with any surface based storms.
Little to no organization is expected this evening.

..Jewell/Grams.. 11/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31120418 31610388 32490265 33250103 33220010 32729961
            31799960 31160017 30690133 30530245 30500317 30550387
            30780420 31120418 

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