SPC MD 2144



MD 2144 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN MS…FAR SOUTHERN AL…FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE

MD 2144 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2019

Areas affected...Far Southern MS...Far Southern AL...Far Western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071955Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts
and/or a brief tornado are expected across far southern MS, far
southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity has modestly increased (as
evidenced by more numerous lightning strikes). This has occurred
amidst a marginal increase in temperatures (into the upper 70s/low
80s) and dewpoints (into the low 70s) within a relatively narrow
corridor from far southern MS into far southern AL/far western FL
Panhandle. Recent KMOB VAD profiles reveal moderate low-level shear
(i.e. 0-1 km shear around 18 kt) supported predominantly by moderate
veering with height. Wind speeds are relatively weak through 3 km.
This modest low-level shear coupled with favorable low-level
thermodynamics (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE over 100 J/kg) will support the
potential for low-level circulations capable of a brief tornado.
Overall severe coverage is expected to be isolated and a watch is
not currently anticipated.

..Mosier/Hart.. 11/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30968956 31568853 31508663 30428687 30408917 30968956 

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