SPC MD 2169



MD 2169 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MS

MD 2169 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

Areas affected...Southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 270815Z - 270945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A low-probability threat for a brief tornado and/or
locally damaging winds exists with any supercell structures that
might intensify within a pre-frontal confluence band before dawn.

DISCUSSION...Gradually increasing convective development has
recently occurred across south-central MS into parts of eastern LA
within a pre-frontal confluence band. The activity has exhibited
weakly broad rotation thus far in Lawrence County, MS. While minor
surface pressure rises are prevalent, this convection is occurring
amid dew points around 70 and MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Time-series of
VWP data from JAN has indicated both veering and weakening of
low-level winds over the past couple hours atop surface
south-southwesterlies. Nevertheless, low-level hodographs are still
adequate, given the ambient rich low-level moisture, to support
intensification of a cell or two capable of a brief tornado and
locally damaging wind. This threat should cease entirely by dawn.

..Grams/Edwards.. 11/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32048916 32148879 32068843 31498843 31048909 30908985
            31089056 31329056 32048916 

Read more



Source link

  • Editor