SPC MD 2170


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Mesoscale Discussion 2170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

Areas affected...Eastern portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 271130Z - 271530Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates occasionally exceeding an inch per hour are
expected over portions of eastern Upper Michigan

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows moderate to heavy snowfall
ongoing from eastern Minnesota eastward across parts of northern and
western Wisconsin, and into western Upper Michigan -- i.e. within
previously issued SWOMCD #2168, which remains in effect at this

Radar also shows heavy precipitation spreading northward across the
lower Peninsula of Michigan and Lake Michigan, and into eastern
Upper Michigan, and adjacent Lake Superior.  This precipitation is
occurring within an area of strong QG ascent, ahead of an upper low
now centered near the Illinois/Wisconsin border, and moving quickly

Temperatures remain marginal across the MCD area, but temperatures
have fallen by a few degrees at several observing sites over the
past 1 to 2 hours, with a subsequent changeover from rain to snow
observed.  Upon examination, it appears that melting-induced cooling
is contributing to surface temperature fluctuations, as a few sites
have shown 2-3 degree decreases in temperature -- and a changeover
to from rain to snow -- as heavier precipitation bands move atop
these sites.  A couple of degrees of subsequent warming -- and a
changeover back to rain -- has then been observed at a couple of
sites, as precipitation rates decrease and melting-induced cooling
diminishes locally.  

Overall, with widespread/heavy precipitation spreading toward the
region, in conjunction with strong large-scale ascent, expect
sufficient cooling to be maintained across the discussion area to
support areas of moderate to heavy snow -- exceeding 1" per hour
rates at times.  The snowfall will continue for the next few hours,
before a dry slot overspreads the area from the southwest.

..Goss.. 11/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   46258327 46738378 46938524 46728649 45918699 45688689
            45758566 45848499 45758355 45888325 46258327 

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