SPC MD 2171



MD 2171 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN OK

MD 2171 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2019

Areas affected...parts of the TX Panhandle into far northwestern OK

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 280450Z - 280915Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
possible through 3am CST.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a large precipitation shield across
the southern High Plains with very light precipitation located over
the Permian Basin.  Surface temperatures as of 1045pm CST range from
around 32 deg F over the central TX Panhandle to the upper 30s over
the northern part of the TX Panhandle where precipitation has yet to
reach the surface.  

The initial precipitation will lead to column moistening/wet bulb
cooling, which will lead to light mixed precipitation type during
the next 1-2 hours over far northwestern OK and the northern portion
of the TX Panhandle.  The 00z Amarillo raob sampled the drier
low-level air that has since moistened.  RAP/NAM forecast soundings
show a relatively narrow corridor where freezing rain appears to be
the preferred precipitation type from south of Amarillo
north-northeastward into northwest OK.  These forecast soundings
indicated the above-freezing layer (750-700mb) will gradually warm
during the overnight as low-level warm advection strengthens.  With
a low-latitude shortwave trough moving through northwest Mexico
tonight, intensification of the precipitation rates is expected over
the southern High Plains by early morning.  However, it appears a
temporary diminishing in precipitation rates will occur after the
initial late evening/early overnight activity moves across the TX
Panhandle.

..Smith.. 11/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34810208 35240219 36810089 36940039 36849983 36449975
            34760098 34580177 34810208 

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