SPC MD 2176


MD 2176 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern OK...north-central into
northeast TX...and far western AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301045Z - 301245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may intensify and pose an isolated severe hail/wind
risk over the next couple of hours. A tornado cannot be ruled out
either. A watch will probably not be needed, but radar trends will
be closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently begun to intensify along and
just ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across north-central TX
and southeastern OK. A feed of mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints
exists in a narrow corridor ahead of this front across northeast TX
and southeastern OK. This low-level moisture is supporting 500 to
nearly 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across this region (greater with
southward extent in TX). There is some potential for
near-surface-based convection generally from the Metroplex to
southeastern OK as a temperature inversion centered around 800 mb
slowly erodes over the next couple hours. Although low-level lapse
rates should remain near neutral, winds veer and strengthen
substantially through the boundary layer per latest RAP forecast
soundings and VWP estimates from the KFWS radar. 50-60 kt of
deep-layer shear will support supercells. But, dominant convective
mode remains somewhat unclear, as storms may have a tendency to
congeal/cluster along the front.

Given the strong effective shear present across this region, severe
hail may occur with any sustained supercell, either surface based or
elevated. Relatively greater potential for surface-based storms
should exist roughly from the Red River southward. Any supercells
across this area that can persist in the strongly sheared boundary
layer could pose both a damaging wind and tornado threat. At this
point, confidence remains fairly low that storms can become truly
surface based in the next couple of hours, and watch issuance
appears unlikely. But, radar trends will be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Grams.. 11/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33239727 33909656 34859591 35199556 35319506 35089438
            34679422 34119425 33659474 32769588 32389657 32599723

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