SPC MD 2177



MD 2177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

MD 2177 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

Areas affected...northeast Texas...northern Louisiana...southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 301546Z - 301845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of large hail, isolated severe wind
gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected to develop over the next
several hours, and a watch may become necessary as storm coverage
increases.

DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in intensity along the
cold front east of Dallas where dewpoints have risen to near 70 F.
Instability is maximized over eastern TX, and will gradually shift
east across LA and southern AR.

The air mass east of the front is currently capped. However,
persistent boundary layer moistening and perhaps confluence ahead of
the cold front may yield a zone of pre-frontal severe potential. If
this occurs, low-level shear with effective SRH in excess of 300
m2/s2 would favor a tornado threat, mainly along the
tail-end/southwest extent where the highest theta-e air exists.
Otherwise, low-level winds will veer as the front approaches, with
very long hodographs favoring supercells producing large hail,
perhaps very large hail over western areas. A few cells may
eventually bow, producing localized wind damage.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31439320 30979452 31159535 31779577 32389564 32979523
            33809395 34159334 34599257 34549194 34189152 33539138
            32969151 32089228 31439320 

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