SPC MD 2178



MD 2178 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 697… FOR EXTREME EAST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

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Mesoscale Discussion 2178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

Areas affected...extreme east Texas northeastward into southwest
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 697...

Valid 302010Z - 302215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 697 continues.

SUMMARY...A line of storms is being monitored for supercell and
possibly tornado potential as they slowly develop across east TX,
northern LA, and into northwest MS and southeast AR.

DISCUSSION...Low-level lapse rates remain poor across the warm
sector due to clouds, though gradual warming is taking place via
advection with upper 60s F dewpoints common. Temperatures along the
MS River continue to warm, with gusty surface winds. 

A pre-frontal line of storms has shown little organization/structure
thus far, but a slight increase in instability may support
organization. Deep-layer shear remains very strong across the entire
region. Low-level shear is strongest near the warm front, and near
outflows associated with ongoing storms from eastern AR into
northern MS and TN. 

As this line of storms continues east/northeast, there may be a
window of opportunity for strengthening, especially if storm
structure can become supercellular.

..Jewell.. 11/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30999473 31829397 32469360 33029319 33809193 34079135
            34129086 33959045 33379025 32809036 32299062 31929135
            31469253 31209341 30999473 

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