SPC MD 2179



MD 2179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN TENNESSEE

MD 2179 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

Areas affected...northern Mississippi and far southern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302031Z - 302130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective cores across north-central Mississippi will
pose an isolated hail/wind risk through the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite mosaic indicate strong to
marginally severe convection migrating quickly into the discussion
area at this time.  These storms are in a marginally buoyant
environment (around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE), though deep shear exceeding
60-70 knots is likely contributing to storm organization and
rotation aloft.  Point forecast soundings in this region suggest
that storms may be slightly elevated, with boundary layer
temperatures/dewpoints a bit too cool to support ingest of
surface-based parcels.  This may change over time however, as breaks
in cloud cover across western and central Mississippi along with
strong low-level advection contributes to modest destabilization
over the course of the afternoon.  Isolated hail and wind are most
likely with stronger cells in the near term, with a brief tornado
risk increasing later as upstream convection moves northeast and
low-level destabilization continues.  Based on the current scenario,
the need for a WW issuance is not clear, though convective trends
are being monitored.

..Cook/Guyer.. 11/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34989070 35208956 35208835 34718809 34108860 33848986
            33809089 34099132 34609110 34989070 

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