SPC MD 2181



MD 2181 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA…NORTHERN WISCONSIN…AND WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

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Mesoscale Discussion 2181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

Areas affected...Portions of east-central Minnesota...northern
Wisconsin...and western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 010055Z - 010700Z

SUMMARY...Favorable deep-layer ascent as an upper-level system
slides eastward will produce 1-2 inch per hour snow rates. The
highest rates will occur along shores of Lake Superior due to lake
enhancement.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level low now over the mid-Missouri Valley
will slowly progress to the east this evening. Deep-layer ascent is
increasing across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin with
several surface stations now reporting moderate snowfall. Areas of
east-central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the western Upper
Peninsula of Michigan are expected to remain in a favorable area of
ascent for the next several hours. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour
will be possible in these areas. Higher snowfall rates, perhaps near
2 inches per hour, will be possible in areas along the Lake Superior
shore where lake enhancement/increased surface convergence will
occur.

Snowfall rates are also expected to increase in parts of
north-central and northeastern Wisconsin; however, the profile will
need to cool in the 850-700 mb layer before precipitation will fully
transition over to snow. Furthermore, these areas are less likely to
see favorable ascent for as long as points to the northwest.

..Wendt.. 12/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46859358 47189270 47229237 47299148 47119015 46908882
            46208865 45688966 45659080 45869240 46079322 46429372
            46859358 

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