SPC MD 2197



MD 2197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA

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Mesoscale Discussion 2197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 140817Z - 141045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado and wind damage threat is expected to
develop over the next couple of hours in parts of central Florida.
Although threat should remain isolated, weather watch issuance can
not be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico extending northeastward into
northern Florida. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is located in
much of the Florida Peninsula. The greatest amount of moisture is
located in western and central Florida where surface dewpoints are
in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Thunderstorms, primarily
disorganized, are ongoing ahead of the front near the coast
southwest of Gainesville. This convection is forecast to continue
moving east-northeastward into north-central Florida while
convection that is located offshore will move inland to the north of
Tampa Bay into western Florida over the next couple of hours. New
convection is also expected to affect central Florida between 10Z
and 12Z near an axis of moderate instability (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg)
analyzed by the RAP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings at 10Z to
the east of Tampa Bay show 0-6 km shear near 40 kt along with 0-1 km
shear of around 25 kt. This should be enough for cell rotation. Due
to the strong low-level shear and moderate instability, the more
organized discrete cells could obtain a marginal tornado or
wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 12/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27208259 27028221 27148185 27738123 28438081 28798082
            29068103 29128152 28968202 28828260 28508287 27958289
            27458274 27208259 

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