SPC MD 2236



MD 2236 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 707… FOR SOUTHWEST MO INTO NORTHWEST AR AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK

MD 2236 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

Areas affected...southwest MO into northwest AR and far southeast OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 707...

Valid 290045Z - 290215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 707 continues.

SUMMARY...Overall severe threat is expected to quickly diminish over
the next hour or so. A downstream watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Sporadic, weak circulations have been noted over the
past hour with the QLCS over southwest MO.  The most recent
circulation over eastern Jasper into Dade Counties has been the
strongest of the evening, but has mostly remained broad/weak through
the lowest 2-3 elevation scans from the KSGF 88-D. The 00z RAOB from
SGF indicates negligible surfaced-based instability with strong
CINH, indicating the line is likely elevated. Poor lapse rates also
are likely limiting further organization/intensity despite
impressive vertical speed/directional shear. Downstream conditions
are not expected to improve, thus a new watch is not expected
downstream of Tornado Watch 707. Some weak areas of rotation could
develop periodically given strong 0-3 km SRH, but elevated nature of
convection will limit severe potential going forward the remainder
of the evening.

..Leitman.. 12/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   38009435 38429393 38429329 38069272 37369240 36329261
            35189332 33589424 33749482 33919505 35419482 37399438
            38009435 

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