SPC MD 2238



MD 2238 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS

MD 2238 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern/central LA into
central/southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291858Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster should continue northeastward this
afternoon. Isolated damaging winds may occur, and perhaps a tornado.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Pronounced ascent associated with a strong
mid/upper-level jet embedded within a southern-stream shortwave
trough is supporting loosely organized thunderstorms along a cold
front across parts of LA. 18Z surface analysis shows around 2-3 mb
pressure falls in the past two hours from eastern LA into much of
MS. A weak surface low currently centered over east-central LA
should develop northeastward along the front this afternoon while
gradually deepening. Although portions of the ongoing thunderstorm
cluster in LA may remain slightly elevated, the southern part
appears to have a better chance of becoming surface based as it
moves across northeastern LA into southern/central MS. This will
particularly be the case where surface temperatures have been able
to warm into the low 70s amidst mid to upper 60s dewpoints.

Given the mainly linear mode anticipated with storms along the
front, isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat.
But, a line-embedded tornado or two also may occur as both low and
mid-level winds strengthen this afternoon, enhancing vertical shear.
At this point, it remains unclear if/when storms will sufficiently
strengthen to justify watch issuance since instability is expected
to remain fairly limited. Regardless, radar trends will be closely
monitored through the rest of the afternoon for signs of increasing
storm intensity.

..Gleason/Hart.. 12/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30779284 31679239 32299158 32909076 33668989 33958955
            33868901 33258899 32148919 31378976 31019078 30669244
            30779284 

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