SPC MD 2240


MD 2240 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 2240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

Areas affected...portions of northeast MS into northwest AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 708...

Valid 292247Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible the
next 1-2 hours across parts of far northeast MS into northwest AL.

DISCUSSION...A corridor of relative greater risk for damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will exist across portions
of northeast MS into northwest AL over the next couple of hours. A
bowing segment within a larger-scale broken line of storms appears
to be the main area for concern in the short-term. This feature has
shown persistent rotation over at least the last hour. The airmass
ahead of the bow is characterized by mid to upper 60s surface
dewpoints and objective analysis indicates MLCAPE as high as 500
J/kg nosing into this vicinity. A surface low centered over far
northwest AL is resulting in backed southeasterly low level winds,
especially east of the MS/AL border, aiding in enhanced effective
SRH. VWP data from BMX and HTX show enlarged low level hodographs
with a 40-50 kt southerly low level jet spreading across the region.
A 22z RAOB from UAH near Huntsville recently showed lower
instability, with MLCAPE around 100 J/kg where widespread
precipitation is currently ongoing. However, the low level wind
profile continues to suggest favorable conditions for storm

This low CAPE/high shear environment will continue to support bowing
segments exhibiting periods of rotation. As a result, damaging wind
gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes appears most likely in the
next 1-2 hours across the MCD area before storms move into a more
hostile environment.

..Leitman.. 12/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33328812 33138856 33188884 33328896 33498899 33738894
            33878890 34058880 34158873 34528819 34608787 34638752
            34538726 34328709 34198713 33878745 33588783 33328812 

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