SPC MD 2



MD 0002 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST GEORGIA…FLORIDA PANHANDLE

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Mesoscale Discussion 0002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2020

Areas affected...southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031040Z - 031315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may continue to increase through the morning hours,
with isolated severe wind gusts the most probable threat from
southern Alabama into central Georgia. While a watch is unlikely in
the short-term, trends are being monitored for any increase in
intensity later this morning.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front progressing east
from far southeast LA to the MS coast and into south-central AL.
Meanwhile, a tight temperature gradient exists near a warm front
from western into central GA.

Ahead of the cold front, relatively warm temperatures in the lower
70s F exist, along with dewpoints around 70 F especially from
southern AL to the Gulf Coast. GPS water vapor measurements over the
past several hours show a substantial increase in overall PWAT, with
maximum values approaching 1.70 inches. 

Showers have deepened over southern AL recently as the more robust
moisture interacts with the front. Already, small line segments have
developed, as deep-layer shear vectors are parallel to the front. 

Lapse rates aloft per forecast soundings earlier indicated a
subsidence inversion, which was hampering storm growth. However, the
moist boundary layer continues to deepen, allowing for deeper
convection (with increasing lightning trends). A general
strengthening is possible with some of these storms this morning, 
more so if pockets of heating can develop later this morning ahead
of this activity.

A few severe wind gusts are possible, especially with any
semi-organized small-scale bows. Some of these elements may
strengthen as they interact with the warm front over GA where lift
and low-level SRH will be maximized. A brief tornado is possible,
although gusty winds are most likely.

..Jewell/Grams.. 01/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30298850 30858762 31448701 32008651 32728599 33598559
            34028533 34098502 33708427 33038385 32318397 31658468
            31128542 30588611 30318681 30188757 30108820 30168846
            30298850 

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