SPC MD 50



MD 0050 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19…20… FOR COASTAL NC…NORTHEAST COASTAL SC

MD 0050 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

Areas affected...Coastal NC...Northeast Coastal SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19...20...

Valid 120649Z - 120815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19, 20
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts will continue across
coastal NC and northeast portions of coastal SC. A brief tornado or
two also remains possible. Downstream watch issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...VAD wind profiles from both LTX and MHX continue to
show very strong low-level flow (i.e. 55-60 kts at 1-2 kft), which
is supporting large low-level hodographs and very strong low-level
shear. Modest instability also exists across much of the region,
supported by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This strongly
sheared and modestly buoyant air mass is expected to remain in place
as the broken convective line continues eastward/southeastward into
the region. 

A gradual weakening has been noted over the majority of the
convective line over the past hour or so. However, more recent
trends have shown localized updraft strengthening across central
portions of coastal NC. This general trend for localized but brief
storm intensification is expected to continue. As such, cells within
the line may occasionally/briefly intensify enough to produce
damaging downburst winds. Given the strong low-level shear, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. However, the overall severe
threat will continue to gradually diminish as the storms struggle
with updraft strength and remain primarily outflow-dominant. Limited
severe potential will preclude downstream watch issuance.

..Mosier/Grams.. 01/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35047848 36107656 35887572 34697684 33887819 33577914
            34147943 35047848 

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