SPC MD 76



MD 0076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA…WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

MD 0076 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

Areas affected...Southeastern Louisiana...far southern
Mississippi...southwestern Alabama...western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 051716Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Low-level wind fields on KLIX/KMOD VAD suggest potential
for low-level storm rotation. Storm mode and upstream precipitation
should limit the overall threat, but isolated strong wind gusts and
a brief tornado are possible. Should trends in storm intensity
increase, a WW will be considered.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has develop over the past 2 hours
across portions of the Mississippi Delta region and progress
northeastward. Storms along the southwestern flank of this activity
have shown some transient and weak low-level rotation. Updrafts have
remained rather weak with only a few cells showing 50 dBZ cores on
the 7 km CAPPI. This is likely due to warm air aloft that was
evident on the 12Z LIX and JAN soundings. Further limiting the
strength of this activity will be the ongoing rainfall downstream of
the stronger cores in LA/MS. Nevertheless, modest to moderate
low-level SRH (around 100-200 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer) on
KLIX/KMOD VAD profiles suggest some storm rotation is possible.
Despite the negative factors, isolated strong wind gusts and a brief
tornado are possible particularly along the southwestern flank where
inflow would be less impacted by precipitation. Trends in storm
intensity will be monitored for possible WW issuance.

..Wendt/Hart.. 02/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30109041 30788987 31518875 31898733 31768669 31098646
            30298696 29718805 29448877 29378927 29649014 29899040
            30109041 

Read more



Source link

  • Editor