SPC MD 117



MD 0117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

MD 0117 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

Areas affected...Portions of south-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102014Z - 102215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Very isolated storms may be accompanied by severe hail.
Given the relatively localized nature of the threat, a WW issuance
is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A lone supercell thunderstorm, which has recently
exhibited deviant rightward motion, is in progress across Bandera
County, TX, likely in association with a mid-level vort-max embedded
in the larger scale cyclonic flow induced by an approaching
shortwave. This storm is currently rooted above a stable surface
layer, and given the current position and southward movement of the
cold front, this storm will likely remain elevated in nature.

Nonetheless, steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) are in
place, supporting over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, along with 70 knots of
effective bulk shear. The aforementioned parameter space will
support continued organization of the Bandera County storm and any
other cells that manage to develop, with severe hail being the
primary risk.

Given the low confidence in further storm development, and the
overall weak synoptic-scale forcing present over south-central TX a
WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 02/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30499687 30319676 30069676 29819680 29689696 29529734
            29449801 29409875 29499908 29729953 30159926 30509756
            30499687 

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