SPC MD 197



MD 0197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

MD 0197 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Areas affected...Texas Big Bend into the Hill Country and Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 190145Z - 190245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective development has occurred in the Big Bend
vicinity. Coverage is expected to increase in the next hour or so.
Large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be primary threats, but
low-level wind fields will support a tornado or two within the
expected linear segments. A WW is likely within 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has initiated within the
Davis Mountains vicinity as stronger mid-level ascent approaches
from the southwest. Farther southeast, isolated storm development
has also occurred across the Mexican border from Del Rio. With time,
an increase in low-level moisture is expected to occur in
conjunction with the deepening surface low in eastern Colorado and a
strong southerly 850 mb jet across the region. Stronger forcing for
ascent should lead to greater storm coverage near and northeast of
the Big Bend with more isolated activity farther southeast.
Northeast extent of the severe threat is also somewhat in question
as convection has impacted areas from around the San Angelo to
Wichita Falls vicinity.

Regional 00Z RAOBs indicated mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km.
With 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear objectively analyzed,
organized storms will be capable of large hail and isolated
strong/severe wind gusts. Strong low-level wind fields will mean a
tornado or two are possible with any mesovorticies that develop
within the linear segments. A WW is likely in the next hour or two.

..Wendt/Hart.. 03/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30470304 31360200 32180111 32220005 31679942 30849922
            29749915 28909950 28580006 28430031 29050060 29640108
            29940197 29920259 29880299 30220316 30470304 

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